Weather & markets,perfectly aligned
Turn any Polymarket temperature event into a complete quantitative weather thesis with ensemble forecasts, market probabilities, confidence scoring, reports, and publication-ready visualizations.
◈ Fetching Polymarket event 986717✔ Location resolved: Shanghai, China✔ Target date: September 10, 2026◆ Combining 6 forecast sources◉ Ensemble prediction: 28.75°Cℹ Model favorite: 29°C · 39.3%↗ Largest positive edge: 30°C · +13.9%✔ Confidence score: 71.8 / 100 · High✦ Generated 9 quantitative visualizationsForecast sources
Visualizations
Outcome markets
Automated reports
Forecast data becomes market intelligence
One event slug becomes a reproducible research package that explains what the models expect, what the market believes, and where those systems disagree.
Sources
EVENT 986717
Shanghai maximum temperature
September 10, 2026 · Asia/Shanghai
Visual research suite
Every forecast has a story.
See the complete picture.
From model consensus to pricing sensitivity, every illustration is designed to make complex probability relationships immediately understandable.
From event slug to prediction thesis
A modular data, logic, reporting, and visualization pipeline turns fragmented information into one coherent analysis.
STEP 01
Fetch the market
Download the event, outcome brackets, liquidity, volume, prices, and historical CLOB data.
STEP 02
Resolve the forecast
Extract the location and date, geocode the city, and query independent weather providers.
STEP 03
Model probabilities
Transform temperature forecasts and uncertainty intervals into outcome-level probabilities.
STEP 04
Generate intelligence
Calculate edges, rank opportunities, score confidence, and create reports and illustrations.
Connected intelligence
Multiple APIs.
One probability engine.
Public market data and independent meteorological sources are normalized into a common forecast structure.
Turn weather uncertainty into clear market insight.
Follow development, discuss new market analyzers, and get updates as Poly Weather expands beyond temperature.
Questions answered
Understand the analyzer.
Learn what the project measures, which sources it uses, and how to interpret model-market disagreement responsibly.